Scoreboard
Sierra Nevada · Updated Wed 6:15 AM PST
Last storm · Nov 4
Close at all 3 resorts
| Resort | We said | It snowed | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palisades Tahoe | 1.3″ | 2.7″ | Close |
| Kirkwood | 2.3″ | 1.3″ | Close |
| Sugar Bowl | 0.7″ | 1.3″ | Close |
Close: within 2″ or 30% of what fell, 24 h ending 12:00 UTC, against our forecast from the day before.
This season · how often we were close
How we score a snow day
A snow day is one where at least 1″ fell, or where a forecast said it would. We score the forecast from the day before.
Close means within 2″ or 30% of what fell, whichever is larger.
What fell is the NOAA NOHRSC National Snowfall Analysis, 24 h ending 12:00 UTC. Gridded snowfall (4 km) from radar and gauge precipitation, adjusted to observer snowfall reports. Not resort-reported. Each 4 km cell averages the slope, so every resort is scored at its point nearest the cell's mean elevation.
We have stored our forecasts since Oct 26. Earlier days are replays: Predicts 1.1 run again on those days.
- Next day
- 12 of 18 days
- 3 days out
- 12 of 18 days
- 5 days out
- 6 of 13 days
18 snow days scored since Oct 1. Days before Oct 26 are replays.
Which way we miss
Which way we miss
Each storm’s total from our forecast the day before, against what fell over the storm. Big storms are 12″ or more.
“Even” means we missed by under 0.5″ on average, either way.
A storm shrank late when our total the day before was 30% or more under our total 3 days before.
On big storms we run low
- 1 storm 12″+
- 7″ low
- 9 storms under 12″
- 2″ low
- Storms shrank late
- 0 of 6
By resort · last 10 snow days
We publish every miss. Each model’s own record is in Compare models, on each resort.